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The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management Survey Finds "Swing States" a Split Decision for President Obama, Gov. Romney

Democrats Monolithic in Support of President Obama, Some Republicans Uncertain Gov. Romney Can Win
November 05, 2012

MEDIA CONTACTS: Jill Sankey
202-994-6466; jpsankey@gwu.edu
David Rehr
202-510-2148; davidrehr@gwu.edu

WASHINGTON – On Monday, Nov. 5, the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) released the 14th installment of its weekly Horse Race poll, which found that President Barack Obama bested Gov. Romney for the first time in four weeks.

Full survey results for the week ending Nov. 4, are as follows:

Rate the prior week's performance (1- Very Ineffective, 5 - Very Effective)

Mitt Romney's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate        3.37

 

Barack Obama's PERSONAL PERFORMANCE as a Presidential candidate    3.63

 

Mitt Romney's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION                                        3.37

 

Barack Obama's presidential CAMPAIGN OPERATION                                    3.56

 

 

Which presidential campaign "won" the previous week?

Romney Campaign                                                                                                                             

30 percent

Obama Campaign                                                                                                 

58 percent

Neither                                                                                                                  

08 percent

Both                                                                                                                     

04 percent

Don't know                                                                                                           

00 percent

 

Which candidate will win the following states?

Ohio

Obama (63 percent)

Nevada

Obama (77 percent)

Wisconsin

Obama (57 percent)

Iowa

Obama (56 percent)

New Hampshire

Romney (48 percent)

Virginia

Romney (55 percent)

Florida

Romney (81 percent)

Colorado

Romney (47 percent)

   

As you see it, what was the pivotal moment of the campaign in the previous week (please describe in your own words)?

Select Comments

Democrat Insider: “The pivotal moment of the week was how both campaigns reacted to Hurricane Sandy and how President Obama effectively utilized the powers of the federal government in responding to a natural disaster of epic proportions.” 

Republican Insider: “I think the pivotal moment of the campaign was Hurricane Sandy. It refocused the candidates on the important things and at least allowed us to take a break from the negative ads, etc. They each handled the situation appropriately and took the opportunity to remind Americans how we rally in difficult times.”

Non-Affiliated Insider: “President Obama and Gov. Christie visiting the hurricane-devastated areas in New Jersey.”

What is the first thing the winner should do after the election is decided (Please indicate whether the advise is being directed to OBAMA or ROMNEY at the beginning of your comment)? 

Select Comments

Democrat Insider: OBAMA – “Seek bipartisan solutions by reaching out to political opponents in the House of Representatives. There will be opportunities for responsible governance with the sequestration looming on the horizon.”

Republican Insider: ROMNEY – “Start working with Congress to craft healthcare legislation to replace Obamacare.”

Democrat Insider: OBAMA - "Speak to the public about the next four years, to re-assure them and make clear that he wants to work with Republicans. However, they have to also demonstrate a willingness to compromise and work with him."

Republican Insider: ROMNEY – “Talk immediately with Senate and House Democrats about fiscal cliff proposals.”

The GSPM Horse Race is an aggregated, weekly measure of the opinions of graduate students, alumni, full-time faculty and adjunct professors at GSPM. The results are not intended to be representative of any larger population. The responses have been weighted to ensure that they are balanced politically, by equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. The comments provided are from survey participants.  The survey results are released weekly and are available on the GSPM website.

GW's Graduate School of Political Management, the pioneer school in the nonpartisan study of political management and applied politics, offers graduate programs in political management, legislative affairs, public relations and PAC management, as well as international programs in Latin America and Europe. The school educates students and professionals in the tools, principles and values of participatory democracy; preparing them for careers as ethical and effective advocates and leaders at the international, national and local levels.

-GW-