WASHINGTON (August 28, 2023) - Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed among the dead from a fatal jet crash just north of Moscow last Wednesday while en route to St. Petersburg. Nine others were killed during the crash, including Wagner’s top commander, Dmitri Utkin and three crew members. The crash comes just months after Prigozhin led his troops in a day-long rebellion against Russia's military leaders in June.
Faculty experts at the George Washington University are available to offer insight, commentary and analysis on the developing news out of Russia. If you would like to speak with an expert, please contact GW Media Relations Specialists Cate Douglass at [email protected] and Shannon Mitchell at [email protected].
Khatuna Mshvidobadze is a professorial lecturer of cyber security. She has been Deputy Director of the Information Center on NATO in Georgia and Adviser to the Office of the Minister of Defense of Georgia. An expert on cyber intelligence, forensics and operations, her presentations on “Russian Cyber Threats” have been presented at FBI Headquarters and field offices, US Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, as well as in various American private companies, think tanks, institutions and associations.
On what’s next, Mshvidobadze says, “There is no doubt there will be a big shake-up of the Wagner group. Either the group will be broken up completely, or, more likely, absorbed by or distributed among some other mercenary groups such as Redut and Convoy. These groups are funded by Russian oligarchs and controlled by the GRU. Both groups have been trying to recruit Wagnerites in the wake of mutiny. Interestingly, the groups are trying to recruit drone navigators for Africa operations. Africa operations are critical for Russia strategically and financially. Controlling key mineral resources, acquiring logging rights, mining gold and diamonds in Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan, and exploiting oil fields in Libya are highly significant factors for Russia. By protecting leaders and fighting rebels in the region, the Russians have been rewarded with unrestricted rights to key minerals that earn them billions of dollars. We might assume that Russian operations in Africa and the Middle East will expand as the stakes are very high.”
David Smith is a former U.S. Ambassador and an adjunct professor of cybersecurity strategy and information management at GW. He is a foreign policy professional with over 40 years of experience in the U.S. military, Pentagon, State Department, both houses of Congress, three diplomatic delegations—bilateral, inter-alliance and UN—defense industry, research institutes and democratic development. He also has a background in NATO and the former Soviet Union, Caucasus and Black Sea, arms control, missile defense and cyber security policy.
On Putin’s perceived strength and governance, Smith says, “Yevgeny Prigozhin is most likely dead, one of ten passengers on his own Embraer Legacy 600 that plummeted to earth in a deadly fireball on August 23. Was it a bomb or a surface-to-air missile? A debate interesting to forensic investigators and journalists. Interestingly, there is no debate about whodunit--just about everyone agrees that it was Vladimir Putin! Putin understands that it is better to be feared than loved. Prigozhin's mutiny--or whatever it was--exposed some cracks in the system. Prigozhn's demise sealed them. If you oppose Putin, you will die--Prigozhin is hardly the first. If you hang out with people who oppose Putin, you will die--choose carefully your travel companions. Surviving oligarchs take note. Putin will eventually tumble but, for now, he governs Russia the only way he can.
Meanwhile, the Wagner commander's death leaves some questions. What will become of Wagner as a paramilitary group? Who will be in charge? What of Wagner's (and Russia's) vast activities in Africa? What is the future of Prigozhin's Internet Research Agency, indicted in the United States for intervening in the 2016 election? And who will grab the pieces of Prigozhin's financial empire, including the lucrative Concord catering group?”
-GW-
