“The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it expected the global economy to slow this year as central banks continued to raise interest rates to tame inflation, but it also suggested that output would be more resilient than previously anticipated and that a global recession would probably be avoided.” (via The New York Times)
If you would like more context on this matter, please consider Scheherazade Rehman, a professor of international finance, business and international affairs at the George Washington University. Rehman is also the director of the European Union Research Center. She has advised a number of institutions including IMF, OPIC, USAID, U.S. State Department, The World Bank, and Central Banks. Her areas of expertise include international finance, global and emerging financial markets, central banking, and the EU.
The IMF says the fight against inflation is paying off, but it’s not over yet. Rehman says it will still take time for previous interest rate hikes to impact the economy.
“While everyone is more upbeat with factors like interest rate hikes winding down, there is a lag of six-to-eight months before the previous interest rate hikes will hit the economy. So, we are about to go into real pain in the economy soon,” Rehman says. “Additionally, this coming recession is not a normal ‘universal recession.’ It is a (unusual and first-time) post pandemic recession (hard or soft landing is debatable) that will impact some sectors more than others.”
If you would like to speak with Prof. Rehman, please contact GW Media Relations Specialist Cate Douglass at [email protected].
-GW-