WASHINGTON (October 14, 2025) – As Americans trade luxury splurges for budget staples like Hamburger Helper, some are viewing these spending shifts as signs of an impending recession.
Tara Sinclair, chair of the economics department at the George Washington University, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics at the U.S. Treasury, can explain what these consumer trends really reveal about economic health, why indicators like the lipstick index can be misleading, and what data economists usually monitor for early signs of a downturn.
Sinclair is a leading macroeconomist frequently featured by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg and is available to add commentary to this news.
To speak with Professor Sinclair, please contact Senior Media Relations Specialist Claire Sabin (claire [dot] sabin
gwu [dot] edu (claire[dot]sabin[at]gwu[dot]edu)).
-GW-