As the Senate considers budget reconciliation language, a new report from the Commonwealth Fund and the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health offers an early look at the potential economic consequences of the House-passed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which proposes deep cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The analysis projects that in 2029, these cuts could lead to the loss of 1.22 million jobs and a $154 billion drop in states’ gross domestic products (GDPs). It includes estimates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The study finds that states would lose significantly more in jobs, economic activity, and tax revenue than the federal government would save. In 2029 alone, state economies are projected to lose $154 billion in GDP from the Medicaid and SNAP cuts — 18 percent more than the $131 billion in federal savings expected that year. States would also lose $12 billion in state and local tax revenue.
Over the next 10 years, the House bill would reduce federal Medicaid funding by $863 billion and SNAP funding by $295 billion. States with higher poverty rates would likely be hit hardest, widening existing regional health and economic disparities.
“Medicaid and SNAP aren’t just safety-net programs — they’re economic engines,” said Leighton Ku, Ph.D., M.P.H., lead author and Director of the Center for Health Policy Research at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. “Cuts of this magnitude would harm millions of families and destabilize state economies, triggering a devastating number of job losses and fiscal strain.”
“As a physician, I’ve seen firsthand how devastating it is when patients lose access to care and basic necessities like food,” said Joseph R. Betancourt, M.D., President of the Commonwealth Fund. “Slashing Medicaid on this scale will leave millions uninsured, increase suffering, and overwhelm providers who are already stretched too thin. These cuts don’t just threaten health coverage — they threaten people’s health and well-being.”
Read the full report here: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2025/jun/how…