For Immediate Release: July 16, 2025
Media Contact: Claire Sabin, claire [dot] sabin
gwu [dot] edu (claire[dot]sabin[at]gwu[dot]edu)
WASHINGTON (July 16, 2025) — A new study from a physics professor at the George Washington University uncovers mathematical patterns in violent conflict, offering a novel framework for understanding, and potentially anticipating, mass casualty events in the Israel-Palestine region.
Utilizing models from molecular physics, the study reveals that the daily fluctuations in casualties, which may appear random, follow predictable patterns rooted in how humans fight. This approach may provide new tools for humanitarian planning and peace-building efforts in the region.
“This research shows that casualty dynamics in the Israel-Palestine conflict follow a form of order akin to how molecules self-assemble,” said Neil Johnson, the study’s PI. “It’s a generalization of polymer physics, applied to human conflict and it points to both historical and future patterns, including the potential for even more severe surprise attacks.”
Key Findings
- Violence in the Israel-Palestine region follows identifiable mathematical laws over time.
- The model suggests the potential for future large-scale “super-shock” attacks.
- Results offer a new basis for data-driven humanitarian planning and peace negotiations.
The study, “Physics reveals and explains patterns in conflict casualties," has been published in EPL.
-GW-