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Sanders Likely to Win New Hampshire, GW Prediction Model Finds

GSPM's election model predicts Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary.

GW Graduate School of Political Management projection shows Vermont senator with sizable lead in the first primary election of 2020

February 06, 2020
Jason Shevrin: [email protected], 202-994-5631
Timothy Pierce: [email protected], 202-994-5647
WASHINGTON (Feb. 7, 2020)—Sen. Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary by a considerable margin, according to a new prediction model from the George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM).
The New Hampshire primary model projects Mr. Sanders will cruise to victory with 29.2% of the vote share. The model predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will finish a distant second with 18.2% of the vote, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (17.5%) and former mayor Pete Buttigieg (9.3%).
The model’s unique formula considers three factors: Twitter mentions, campaign cash on hand and the number of endorsements received by each candidate. The amount of Twitter mentions reflects the attention a candidate is garnering among the wider electorate as well as the effect important opinion leaders have on the online political discussion. Cash on hand quantifies the financial position of a candidate and demonstrates the level of donor commitment. The number of endorsements is a relative indication of a candidate’s strength within the party. The model does not take into account polling data or direct results from previous elections. A complete description of the model’s methodology can be found online.
“As of the date of the model, the Iowa caucus results had not been reported and thus, could not be used in the model,” Meagan O’Neill, GW’s lead research scientist for the project, said. “Twitter data continues to be a significant predictor of primary vote share.”
This election prediction project is the first of its kind taking into account the number of times a candidate’s name is mentioned on Twitter. The inclusion of quantifiable Twitter activity provides a more holistic measurement of public opinion about the 2020 presidential campaign.
The 2020 election prediction model project is an initiative of GSPM’s Public Echoes of Rhetoric in America (PEORIA) Project, which strives to quantify how voters react to campaign messages. The researchers plan to test the new model against the results of the first few primaries in 2020 to refine it before predicting an array of results for Super Tuesday. The team will publish projections periodically throughout the 2020 campaign.