2023 was a year of economic contradictions and uncertainty, according to one professor at the George Washington University, who says the one thing that he believes will carry over from 2023 into 2024 is increased uncertainty among global economies.
Danny Leipziger is a Professor of Practice of International Business and managing director of The Growth Dialogue at the George Washington University School of Business. Leipziger, a former vice president of the World Bank, headed the Bank’s Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network of more than 700 economists and other professionals working on economic policy formulation in the area of growth and poverty, debt, trade, gender and economic empowerment, and public sector management and governance. Leipziger’s areas of expertise include development economics, international economic policy, and macro and economic growth.
Leipziger shares his key highlights of the last year, and what he believes is in store for 2024.
The Year in Review: “The past year, 2023, has been a year of heightened uncertainty and economic contradictions. The Ukraine war pushed up inflation that forced the world's central banks to tighten liquidity with interest rates rising to their highest point in many decades. Despite this, most countries have avoided outright recessions and unemployment, in the U.S., for example, has remained at historic lows. This is not what is normally expected, and markets have been somewhat confused by these events. Still the cost of debt service has risen, adding to fiscal pressures.”
The Outlook for 2024: “Although some forecast a mild recession, the betting is it can be avoided but not if the Middle east conflict escalates and energy prices surge once again, which would prompt further monetary tightening. Emerging Markets will continue to face debt difficulties due to high interest rates and faltering currencies. In the U.S., where the real estate sector is hurting, corporate bankruptcies may be more likely as high interest rates continue to bite over-leveraged firms. We continue to see many countries facing large fiscal deficits and much more elevated levels of public debt. This means there is little room to deal with new shocks to the global economy. The one holdover from 2023 to 2024 is increased uncertainty, that's for certain.”
If you would like to speak with Prof. Leipziger, please contact GW Senior Media Relations Specialist Cate Douglass at [email protected].
-GW-